Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

617
FXUS61 KBUF 241201
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
701 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple bands of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will continue
to impact the counties lining the southern shore of Lake Ontario
into this morning.

2) Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday morning.

3) Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday through Sunday night, with
wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday.

4) Moderate to heavy lake effect snow is likely southeast and east
of Lake Ontario Monday night through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple bands of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario
will continue to impact the counties lining the southern shore of
Lake Ontario into this morning.

Northwesterly flow of Arctic air crossing Lake Ontario will continue
to produce multiple bands of lake effect snow showers across the
counties just south of the lake. Additional accumulations through
this morning should be mainly 1-2 inches, with a few localized spots
possibly seeing up to 3 inches. Lake effect activity is expected to
weaken as we head through mid morning with the passage of the mid
level trough, although local rules of thumb with this scenario show
that at least some light snow shower activity will continue across
areas just south of Lake Ontario through late morning/early
afternoon. Lake bands will then eventually retreat toward, then
over the lake through the afternoon hours as winds turn offshore
in advance of the large system set to impact the region for the
second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday
morning.

Winds will continue to slowly come down through the early morning
hours, however temps continue to fall as well, especially across
cloud free areas away from any lake clouds/snow shower activity.
Current temps across much of our area are below zero, with negative
teens across the North Country. Most elevated winds are found near
the lakes, which fortunately coincides with the `warmer` temps near
or just above zero due to lake cloud cover/lake effect activity,
helping to counteract wind chill values despite the higher winds.
Highs will only slowly recover today, with highs maxing out in the
single digits to very low teens, possibly not topping zero across
the Tug Hill and western Dacks.

Wind chills will be the 10 to 20 below zero range on the lake
plains, and 15 to 25 below across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes through mid morning. The North Country will be
coldest, with wind chills dropping to 30 to 35 below at times
through mid to late morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday through Sunday
night, with wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday.

Model guidance has remained consistent overnight with the handling
of the incoming synoptic snowstorm. The system is taking shape this
morning across the southern Plains, with the developing surface low
moving into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday morning. This initial low
will move into the Ohio Valley through the day Sunday, with
secondary coastal cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast. The coastal
low will strengthen and become the dominant system Sunday night
through Monday as it passes just southeast of southern New England,
but the initial low (or at least an inverted trough) will be
maintained over the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes
through Sunday night.

The upper level jet dynamics are remarkable with this system, with a
250MB jet strengthening to nearly 200 knots over southeast Canada by
late Sunday. Our region will be located in the favorable right
entrance region of this upper level jet streak. Abundant moisture
will be advected northward into the incipient arctic airmass, with
well organized frontogenesis and deformation north of the low track
combining with upper level divergence to produce a protracted period
of deep layer ascent Sunday through Sunday night.

Snow will spread north across the region during the first half of
Sunday, and quickly become moderate to heavy an hour or two after
the onset. The heaviest snow will fall from Sunday afternoon through
the first half of Sunday night for most of the area, and late Sunday
afternoon through early Monday morning east of Lake Ontario. Expect
snowfall rates to peak in the 1" to 1.5" per hour range during the
height of the storm.

The widespread, heavy snow will quickly taper off later Sunday night
through early Monday morning as the strongest synoptic scale forcing
moves off into New England as the coastal low takes over. This will
leave behind lower intensity, light wrap around snow Monday morning,
with lake enhancement becoming more organized through the day. Lake
enhanced snow will continue through the day southeast of Lake
Ontario, with some upslope snow across the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie. A few Lake Huron bands may begin to move into Western NY
as well later in the afternoon as synoptic scale moisture and
forcing increase ahead of a shortwave.

As far as accumulations go, storm totals from Sunday through Monday
evening will be in the 8 to 14 inch range for most of the area. Far
Western NY, including Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and the Lake Erie
shore will likely be near the lower end of that range being on the
western edge of better forcing. The highest totals will likely be
southeast of Lake Ontario with the added boost of lake enhancement
on Monday. Forecast confidence remains high given the run to run
model consistency and agreement.

Winds will be much lower with this system than the past few days, so
blowing/drifting will be minimal.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Moderate to heavy lake effect snow is likely
southeast and east of Lake Ontario Monday night through Tuesday.

The synoptic snow will be done by Monday evening, with our attention
turning back to the mesoscale. A sharp trough will swing across
Quebec Monday night through Tuesday, delivering a fresh arctic
airmass to the eastern Great Lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels
will peak at over 10K feet Monday evening, then gradually drop
through midweek as the cold air becomes more shallow with time.

Off Lake Ontario...

Multiple bands of lake effect/enhanced snow along the south shore of
the lake Monday evening will transition into a more concentrated and
heavier band of lake effect snow overnight as boundary layer flow
backs to the WNW. This band of snow will move east across Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties in the evening, then focus on Oswego County
overnight where it will become a heavy single band. Snowfall rates
may increase to 2-3" per hour as the band moves into Oswego County
and intensifies overnight. The band will remain mobile however, with
boundary layer flow continuing to back to the WSW by Tuesday
morning. This will carry lake effect snow north and east across
Oswego County to the Tug Hill Plateau through Tuesday morning. By
Tuesday afternoon, a mid level and surface trough will cross Lake
Ontario, increasing shear and disrupting boundary layer flow, likely
forcing lake effect snow east of the lake to weaken.

The lake effect band will add at least several inches of
accumulation Monday night through Tuesday from Wayne County eastward
to the eastern Lake Ontario region. How much snow accumulates will
depend on the intensity of the band, and also how fast it moves
across the region with backing boundary layer flow.

Looking farther ahead, cold northwest flow will continue Tuesday
night through the end of the week. This will likely support
additional lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario, although
shorter northwest fetch will likely keep intensity limited.

Off Lake Erie...

Ice cover will continue to thicken through the period, which will
limit (but not completely end) lake effect potential. Uncertainty
with the extent and thickness of ice cover makes this a lower
confidence forecast.

Boundary layer flow will back to the W or WSW Monday night through
Tuesday, with some limited lake enhanced snow developing east of the
lake. Accumulations should be relatively minor given the ongoing
expansion of ice cover, but a few inches may be possible from the
western Southern Tier to the Buffalo Southtowns.

Meandering bands of Lake Huron lake effect snow may cross Western NY
Monday night with minor additional accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwesterly flow of Arctic air will continue to produce lake
clouds south/southeast of the lakes, with the main snow shower
activity impacting the counties lining the southern shore of Lake
Ontario. This will produce MVFR/IFR conditions through at least a
portion of this morning for the KIAG/KROC terminals with some
improvement to flight conditions through the afternoon. Light lake
effect snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Erie impacting
the KJHW terminal with MVFR/IFR conditions as well, with improving
flight conditions expected this afternoon as boundary layer flow
becomes disorganized with the approach of a large area of low
pressure from the southwest and high pressure passing by to the
north. Otherwise, mainly VFR/low VFR expected for KBUF, with VFR for
KART for today.

Mainly VFR conditions expected with CIGS lowering from south to
north through the overnight as large low pressure system approaches
from the southwest, with MVFR possibly making it as far north as the
Southern Tier toward the end of the TAF cycle, along with the chance
of a few snow showers.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/VFR deteriorating to widespread LIFR from south to
north with heavy snow developing.

Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue across the central and
eastern Lake Ontario nearshore waters, however high pressure will
continue to build into the eastern Great Lakes allowing winds to
finally diminish through the morning hours.

A light easterly flow will begin across the Lakes Sunday in response
to a large area of low pressure south of the region. East-northeast
flow will continue through Sunday night, before winds increase out
of the northwest by late Monday. Small Craft conditions are likely
on the western side of Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -30 (2014)                         0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ002>005.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ003>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK/JM
CLIMATE...HSK